🧵 The DAT discounts won’t last Everyone’s staring at the 20–60% DAT discounts — but this is a flow story, not a fundamentals one. Here’s what’s really happening 👇 1️⃣ The fast money (Citadel, Yorkville, Graham, CTA/MM types) got stock via structured deals. 2️⃣ Unlocks hit → they’re mandated sellers. They’re not investors; they’re flow machines. 3️⃣ That forced selling floods the market → temporary 20–60% discounts. 4️⃣ In 1–2 months, the flows clear → supply vanishes → buyers step in → premiums return. 🧩 Names I’m watching: $SQNS – BTC proxy, 30%+ below NAV + IP kicker $NAKA – BTC exposure, ~20% discount to NAV $ASST – BTC exposure, ~25% discount $BTCT – Canadian DAT, holds ~770 BTC, ~0.7× NAV $EMPD – U.S. BTC treasury, ~25–30% discount to NAV $SBET – ETH exposure, ~0.85× mNAV $ETHZ – ETH exposure, ~0.80× mNAV $TONX – TON exposure, ~60% discount $LITS – LTC play, 0.56× mNAV Forced sellers make the best setups. When the quants are gone, these reprice fast.
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