🧵 The DAT discounts won’t last
Everyone’s staring at the 20–60% DAT discounts — but this is a flow story, not a fundamentals one.
Here’s what’s really happening 👇
1️⃣ The fast money (Citadel, Yorkville, Graham, CTA/MM types) got stock via structured deals.
2️⃣ Unlocks hit → they’re mandated sellers. They’re not investors; they’re flow machines.
3️⃣ That forced selling floods the market → temporary 20–60% discounts.
4️⃣ In 1–2 months, the flows clear → supply vanishes → buyers step in → premiums return.
🧩 Names I’m watching:
$SQNS – BTC proxy, 30%+ below NAV + IP kicker
$NAKA – BTC exposure, ~20% discount to NAV
$ASST – BTC exposure, ~25% discount
$BTCT – Canadian DAT, holds ~770 BTC, ~0.7× NAV
$EMPD – U.S. BTC treasury, ~25–30% discount to NAV
$SBET – ETH exposure, ~0.85× mNAV
$ETHZ – ETH exposure, ~0.80× mNAV
$TONX – TON exposure, ~60% discount
$LITS – LTC play, 0.56× mNAV
Forced sellers make the best setups.
When the quants are gone, these reprice fast.
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