On a day in which people are digesting the announcement of unprecedented capacity expansion from $CAT's P&E division, I present to you a cautionary tale from $TREX. Almost 4-years ago today, $TREX announced a $400MM capacity expansion in Little Rock. Never mind that capacity expansion in composite decking was occurring EVERYWHERE at the time. Rates were near zero, renovation spend was enormous, and $TREX thought they could continue double digit organic growth forever. Now in 2025, the company just guided 25% below the street for 4Q on topline and the space hasn't grown for 3-years. Will $TREX mothball Little Rock for a year or two? It's going to be a painful production ramp that's for sure.
Industrial cycles remain undefeated.
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